Book Review: Tomorrow Now: Envisioning the Next Fifty Years

Bruce Sterling structured this book using the Shakespeare's All the world's a stagepassage. He matches each stage with a technology innovation and attempts to describe how it will develope and affect society in the next fifty years. He asks two quetsions: What does it mean, and how does it feel.

This book started as an easy read. I agree with most of his thoughts. He uses a lot of compares and contrasts in each chapter. Drawing on history to explain the future. From the middle chapters, the writing starts to drag on a bit. The book ends on the topic/stage of death, which is appropriate as it ends without much commentary.

I enjoy this book in the sense that it is a meta book. It contains a lot of pointers to reference materials that sound very interesting. From the Kevin Kelly book, to Emerson's American Scholar, to "things that think", etc. I will add those to my reading stack.

This writeup here is less of a review, more of my reading notes I took from the keypoints in the book for myself. You really need to read the entire book to what this is all about and judge for yourself.

 

All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players;
They have their exits and their entrances,
And one man in his time plays many parts,
His acts being seven ages. At first, the infant,
Mewling and puking in the nurse's arms.
And then the whining school-boy, with his satchel,
And shining morning face, creeping like snale
Unwillingly to school. And then the lover,
Sighing like furnace, with a woeful ballad
Made to his mistress' eyebrow. Then a soldier,
Full of strange oaths, and bearded like the pard,
Jealous in honour, sudden and quick in quarrel,
Seeking the bubble reputation
Even in the cannon's mouth. And then the justice,
In fair round belly with good capon lin'd,
With eyes severe, and beard of formal cut,
Full of wise saws and modern instances;
And so he plays his part. The sixth age shifts
Into the lean and slipper'd pantaloon
With spectacles on nose and pouch on sides;
His outhful hose, well sav'ed, a world too wide
For his shrunk shank, and his big manly voices,
Turning again toward childish treble, pipes
And whilstles in his sound. Last scene of all,
That ends this strange eventful history,
Is scecond childishness and mere oblivion,
Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.

As You Like It, 2.7.147-174)


These are the first few chapters/stages and their associated technologies:

The Infant - Genetic Engineering

Stering argues against the fear of big genetic engineering -- making superbabies, the perfect human. Obsolecence is built in to the process. The superbabies of today will be sub par by the time he or she grows up. Technolgy advances. There is simply no benefits to make superbabies.

He predicts that all the action is at the single cell level. Use bacteria to make drugs. Use micro organism to grow and control the garden.Sterility is a bad word. Living bateria is your friend. He uses mitochondria as an example for useful microbes that lives inside you.

Single cell level genetics are the 21st century version of farming and healing:

Farming andn healing are two lines of human work that are prehistoric, planted at the very basis of civilization. During the whole course of history, healing and farming have been in continuous, roiling development, full of excitement and crises and massive, terrible failures, with nothing less at state than our life and our death. Genetics cannot make either of these ancient arts more stable. It will drive htem both into stampede.

The Student - Education

Learning is not the center of school life. Today's young stedents are being civilized for an older civilization than our own.

Stering makes many references to Kvein Kelly's New Rules for the New Economy. The new academia is moving too fast. There is a "canon panic". A permanent dis-equilibrium. He compares the future state to Ralph Waldo Emerson's famous speech in 1837. "The American Scholar". Emerson's canon for the American scholar is "Transcendentalism". The future is better described by Kevin Kelly.

Sterling suggest two new virtues for a twenty-first century scholar: flexibility and patiences. Flexibility because there is a permanent dis-equlibrium in the new world. Note that permanent dis-equalibrium is not something bad, terrible, and dangerous. Walking, he notes, is permanent dis-equilibrium.

Patiences, because we as human will outlast the machines and all the changes in the world.

The Lover - Man Machine Relationships

In the old world, we have John Ruskin's 19th century concept of Pathetic Fallacy : Human projects our human feelings onto symbolic externalities. The pathetic fallacy is a confusion between the powerful way we fell inside and the indifferent way that the world actually works.

In the new world, look at MIT Professor Gershefeld's "things that Think" research.

Good To Great

By Jim Collins
Buy on Amazon

This book by Jim Collins is an easy read. I picked it up just before a trip and couldn't put it down. So I took it on the plane and read through 1/3 of it by the time the 7 hours flight is over.

This book struck a chord with me as I am living through the lifecycle of a maturing start-up company. I can recall examples of each point that Collins made in his book from my experience. Things that we done right, and mistakes that we made. At the end of his book, he actually bring this book, which is about going from good to great for a matured company, together with his first book, build to last, which is about new companies. He said that the principles apply nevertheless. And my own personal experience would agree.

With this type of book one can always argue that the author is just writing up common sense ideas. Of course, but common sense is hard to find sometimes. What Collins did is to study companies that made a dramatic transition. Looking at companies commulative stock returns, compare with the market and direct comparison companies, Collins identify companies that, at some transition point, resulted in great performances compare with all others. Specifically, at least three times the market performance over fifteen years.

What I have here are some notes from the keypoints in the book for myself. You really need to read the entire book to understand what this is all about !

You can real more about Jim Collins at his website. Check out his reading list -- He has set a personal goal to read 100 books a year.

Framework

Level 5 Leadership

These are the five progressive levels of leadership:

  • Level 5: Level 5 Executive
    Builds enduring greatness through a paradoxical blend of personal humility and professional will

  • Level 4: Effective Leader
    Catalyzes commitment to and vigours pursuit of a clear and compelling vision, stimulating higher performance standards

  • Level 3: Competent Manager
    Organizes people and resources towards the effective and efficient pursuit of predetermined objectives

  • Level 2: Contributing Team Member
    Contributes individual capabilities to the achievement of group objectives and worked effectively with others in a group settings

  • Level 1: Highly Capable Individual
    Makes productive contributions through talent, knowledge skills, and good work habits.

Humility + Will = Level 5 Leadership

To achive level 5 leadership skills, one must combine personal humility and professional will:


Prefessional Will

Creates superb results, a clear catalyst in the transition from good to great.

 

Personal Humility

Demonstrates a compelling modesty, shunning public adulation; never boastful.


Demonstrates an unwavering resolve to do whatever must be done to produce the best long-term results, no matter how difficult.
 

 

Acts with quiet, calm determination; relies principally on inspired standards, not inspiring charisma, to motivate.


Sets the standard of building an enduring great company; will settle for nothing less.

 

Channels ambition into the company, not the self; sets up successors for even greater success in the next generation.


Looks into the mirror, not out the window, to apportion responsibility for poor results, never blaming other people, external factors, or bad luck.

 

Looks out the window, not in the mirror, to apportion credit for the success of the company - to other people, external factors, and good luck.


First Who, then What

Collins' point is:

"...not just about assembling the right team - that's nothing new. The main point is to first get the right people on the bus (and the wrong people off the bus) before you figure out where to drive it. The second key point is the degree of sheer rigor needed in people decisions in order to take a company from good to great."

The purpose of compensation is not to keep "motivating" the right behaviors from the wrong people, but to get and keep the right people in the first place.

great vision without great people is irrelevent

People Decision

  1. I live by this one: When in doubt, don't hire - keep looking. (Corollary: A company should limit its growth based on its ability to attract enough of the right people.)

  2. When you know you need to make a people change, act. (Corollary: First be sure you don't simply have someone in the wrong seat.)

  3. Put your best people on your biggest opportunities, not your biggest problems. (Corollary: If you sell off your problems, don't sell off your best people.)

Confront the Brutal Facts

The Stockdale Paradox

Retrain faith that you will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties.

and at the same time

Confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.

 
  1. Lead with questions, not answers

  2. Engage in dialogue and debate, not coercion.

  3. Conduct autopsies, without blame.

  4. Build red flag mechanisms that turn information into information that cannot be ignored.

The Hedgehog Concept (Simplicity within the three circles)

The triumph of understanding over bravado -- requires a deep understanding of three intersecting circles translated into a simple, crystalline concept -- the hedgehog concept.

The three circles are:

  1. What you can be the best in the world at

  2. What drives your economic engine

  3. What you are deeply passionate about

A hedgehog concept is not a goal to be the best, a strategy to be the best, an intention to be the best, a plan to be the best. It is an understanding of what you can be the best at.

If you could pick one and only one ratio - profit per x (or in the social sector, cash flow per x) - to systematically increase over time, what x would have the greatest and most sustainable impact on your economic engine?

A Culture of Discipline

Build a culture full of self-disciplined people who take disciplined action, fanatically consistent with the three circles, the hedgehog concept.

Freedom and responsibility within a framework -- build a consistent system with clear constraints, but give people freedom and responsibility within the framework of that system. Hire self-disciplined people who don't need to be managed, and manage the system, not the people.

Bureaucratic culture arises to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline, which arise from having the wrong people on the bug in the first place.

Discipline means fanatical adherence to the Hedgehog Concept and the willingness to shun opportunities that fall outside the three circles.

Technology Accelerators

Technology is an accelerator of momentum, not a creator of it.

Flywheel and the Doom Loop

Sustainable transformations follow a predictable pattern of buildup and breakthrough. Like pushing on a giant, heavy flywheel, it takes a lot of effort to get the thing moving at all, but with persistent pushing in a consistent direction over a long period of time, the flywheel builds momentum, eventually hitting a point of breakthrough.